Determinantes das exportações agropecuárias no Brasil

Uma análise em cointegração variante no tempo

Abstract

This work examines the impacts of the real exchange rate, foreign income and the agricultural commodity price index on Brazilian agricultural exports between January 2000 and December 2022 using the time-varying cointegration model proposed by Bierens and Martins (2010). The study's potential contribution lies in estimating the non-linear elasticities of this sector's exports in Brazil. The results indicate that the elasticities of Brazilian agricultural exports showed the expected signs in most of the sample periods, even from a time-varying perspective, and that, on average, increases of 10% in the real exchange rate, foreign income and the commodity price index increase Brazilian agricultural exports by 11.4%, 8.6% and 4.5%, respectively. The main fluctuations in elasticities were observed as a result of the commodities boom, the subprime crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.