The Trajectory of Violence in Brazil: An Analysis of Spatial Patterns and The Convergence of Homicide Rates in Municipalities

Abstract

Homicide rates have grown considerably in Brazil throughout this century. However, this growth did not occur homogeneously. There was a large increase in homicide rates in small municipalities, and a certain stability in large ones, as well as a considerable increase in the North and Northeast regions and a significant reduction in the Southeast region. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the spatial patterns of violence, through an exploratory analysis of spatial data, and to test the hypothesis of convergence of homicide rates, in Brazilian municipalities, for the period from 2005 to 2019, by through β-convergence models, using panel data and considering spatial effects. The results showed that not only is the process of convergence in homicide rates taking place, but practically all municipalities in the country are close to their stationary states, with a certain individual equilibrium rate.