Regional Inequalities and Infrastructure: A short and long term analysis of the UTE Harbor from Sergipe

Abstract

This work aims to assess the short and long-term regional and sectoral impacts of the construction and operation of the Porto de Sergipe Thermoelectric Plant. A dynamic and interregional model of General Computable Balance is used, calibrated for 28 regions and 51 sectors. In methodological terms, the innovation of this work consists of disaggregating Sergipe in two regions in the model: Metropolitan Region of Aracaju (RMA) and Resto de Sergipe (RS). The results point to a relevant impact on the RMA, with low leakage to RS and the other federative units. The sectors with the greatest impact on RMA would be related to the dynamics of construction and operation of a structuring investment, considering the demand for inputs and services in these phases, an example of Maintenance and reduction services, Services provided to companies, Cement, among others. The real GDP of the RMA is estimated to rise above the GDP of the baseline scenario by a magnitude of 6.55% by 2030.