Unemployment Duration and Economic Crisis: an Analisys Under Competitive Risks for Brazil from 2012 to 2019

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the determinants of unemployment duration seeking to identify the influence of the characteristics of individuals and the economic scenario on the transition dynamics from unemployment to occupation, formal or informal, and to inactivity. To this end, a Competitive Risk (RC) model is use d from PNADC microdata (National Continuous Household Survey) in the period from 2012 to 2019. The results indicate a reduction in the risk of leaving unemployment for occupation and inactivity in the period, especially for the formal job market, starting in 2015. Personal characteristics of workers are also associated with insertion in the occupation as well as with the exit to inactivity, with emphasis on women, non-whites and less educated who make up a disadvantaged group, as they are more vulnerable to remaining unemployed and, in some cases, leaving the workforce.